Forecast Calculation Explanation MUX and DWH
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Forecast Calculation Explanation MUX and DWH

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Article ID: 281872

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Updated On:

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Clarity PPM SaaS Clarity PPM On Premise

Issue/Introduction

  • How is Forecast Calculated in MUX?
  • Why it may be different in DWH?

Environment

Component(s):

  • Modern UX (MUX)
  • Data Warehouse (DWH).

Version:

  • Tested in 16.2.3 as of this writing.

Resolution

  • Forecast is calculated using the following formula.
    For the fiscal period completed, Forecast = Actual Cost
    For the current fiscal period and the fiscal period in the future, Forecast = Planned Cost.
  • The fiscal Period mentioned in the above formula is Cost plan Type that is set when creating a cost plan. So no matter which per period metric is selected the forecast calculation depends on the underlying Cost Plan Period Type. Let’s understand this statement with a few examples.

It does not matter how your per-period metrics are displayed, the calculations will always be based on the plan period type.

WEEKLY Fiscal Period Type for Cost Plan Scenario:

  • If you have a WEEKLY period type based cost plan the Forecast calculation is dependent on the WEEKLY fiscal periods. 
  • As an example, we set-up a cost plan from December 2022 to December 2023. Once the cost plan is populated, no matter which period type is selected in View Options, the forecast is calculated using the following formula.
    For the WEEKLY fiscal periods that are completed, Forecast = Actual Cost.
    For the current and future fiscal WEEKLY periods, Forecast = Planned Cost.

MONTHLY Fiscal Period Type for Cost Plan:

  • If you have the per-period metrics set as weeks, the forecast will still associate to the fiscal months.  If a week spans 2 months and into the current month, the weekly view will still show the plan as the forecast.
    For completed months, Forecast = Sum of Actual cost of every week in the completed months.
    For the current month, Forecast  = Sum of Planned cost for each week of the current  month
  • Total forecast will show sum of actual costs through prior month plus planned costs for current and future Months of the Plan.
  • For Future Months, Forecast = Sum of Planned cost of every period  in the month, i.e If you are using weekly per-period metrics it will be for each week  current and future periods of the plan.
    The same scenario is applied when using other Per-period metrics.
  • For example if your Plan type is Annual and you display per-period metrics as monthly.  The forecast still calculates from the annual dates.  Therefore, if you show per-periods as monthly, the forecast will not calculate as prior-periods actuals until the fiscal year rolls over.

Data Warehouse Calculations:

  • Because the data warehouse has values as monthly periods, the reports do calculated differently the forecast will show as monthly even if the plan is annual

Additional Information

  • Forecast cost can differ with Plan Cost if the monthly fiscal periods do not start on the first of a month, and end on 30th or 31st or 29th(28th) of a month. For example, Jan 2024 defined as starting from 15th of Jan and ending on 14th of Feb.